Pollster Frank Luntz Analyzes RFK Jr.’s IMPACT On Trump Campaign

In an interview that aired on Tuesday evening, pollster Frank Luntz speculated Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump could give the billionaire a leg up in his race against Democratic VP candidate Kamala Harris.

Speaking on NewsNation, Luntz indicated that Kennedy’s star has faded since Biden entered the race earlier this summer but still carries a punch going into the upcoming election.

“It’s probably worth about 1% for Trump, and that 1% could be everything if it’s in all the swing states,” Luntz said. “In the end, the reason why Kennedy was strong 10%, 12%, even as high as 14% is because he was taking votes away from Joe Biden. Joe Biden is gone. Kamala Harris has replaced him, and his vote collapsed down to about 4% or 5%. And what’s left is a Trump vote.”

“Some of them are simply not going to participate in November,” he added. “Roughly 2 to 1, the ones who are remaining will vote for Trump over Harris. And that’s worth a single percent. And a single percent can make the difference in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.”

Luntz additionally stressed the significance of these votes still up for grabs, adding that “Some of them are simply not going to participate in November. Roughly 2 to 1, the ones who are remaining will vote for Trump over Harris. And that’s worth a single percent. And a single percent can make the difference in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.”

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio pointed to the polling in seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

Fabrizio’s memo estimated Kennedy could have a 3-5% impact on the vote in each of these states, becoming order-of-magnitude bigger than most other marginals.

“To put these numbers into perspective, the net vote gained in a state like Arizona based on just a 2020 turnout model would be over 41,000 votes[,] nearly 4 times Biden’s winning margin or in Georgia the net gain would be over 19,000 votes[,] nearly twice Biden’s margin,” he wrote. “So, when you hear or see the Harris team and/or the Democrats try and spin otherwise, now that the data clearly paints a different picture. This is good news for President Trump and his campaign – plain and simple.”